The air cargo market in 2025 has been shaped by a labyrinth of global events, including policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, and fluctuating demand across industries. From e-commerce booms to automotive slowdowns, businesses involved in manufacturing, logistics, and supply chain management are navigating a complex and dynamic landscape. This article provides a detailed analysis of the current air cargo market, key trends, and actionable insights for professionals looking to stay ahead of the curve.

The Current State of the Air Cargo Market

Steady But Volatile Growth

The air cargo market has experienced moderate growth in 2025, with global air freight up approximately 3% through July. This marks a deceleration compared to the double-digit growth of 2024 driven by phenomena like the e-commerce boom and the Suez Canal disruptions. While demand remains relatively stable, significant variability exists between regions and sectors.

E-commerce continues to drive demand, particularly for shipments out of China to Europe and North America.
Automotive Weakness: Regions reliant on automotive cargo - including routes between Mexico and Brazil - have seen subdued activity, although signs of recovery are emerging.
Middle East Cargo Surge: Airports like Dubai have remained strong transit hubs, benefiting from their strategic role in rerouting disrupted shipping lanes.

Market Challenges and Adaptations

Cargo operators have faced a challenging year, characterized by geopolitical uncertainties and shifting trade policies. Despite earlier predictions of air cargo demand cratering due to the return of the Trump administration and tariff changes, the market has shown resilience. According to Tom Crabtree of Transport Research Advisory, "Trade finds a way", with shippers and carriers quickly adapting to changing conditions.

Key Trends Shaping the Market

Policy and Trade Shocks

Recent US trade policies, particularly the end of de minimis exemptions for Chinese imports, have disrupted traditional air freight flows. However, operators have pivoted by:

Diversifying routes to Europe and Latin America.
Exploring secondary stops and expanded networks to spread risk.
Relying on innovative packaging and consolidation to comply with new regulations.

Geopolitics and Capacity Constraints

The closure of Russian airspace continues to impact major cargo routes from Asia to North America and Europe. In addition, rising tensions on the Belarus-Poland border have disrupted rail freight between Asia and Europe, further increasing demand for air and ocean freight.

Ocean Freight Volatility

Freight buyers increasingly turn to air cargo as a reliable alternative to ocean shipping, which has shown significant pricing volatility. Containership operators have reacted to low profitability by reducing capacity, leading to service disruptions that benefit air freight operators.

Niche Players and Flexibility

Smaller, niche airlines such as Mass Cargo Airlines have demonstrated agility, tailoring their operations to client needs. CEO Robert Vanve highlighted their response to market shifts by expanding beyond Mexico to destinations like Brazil, Chile, and Bogotá, and introducing secondary stops to mitigate demand fluctuations.

Preparing for Peak Season

Late but Moderate Peak Expected

The traditional Q4 peak season for air cargo is expected to be delayed and moderate, with volumes likely picking up in October. Tom Crabtree predicts that containership capacity restrictions will drive shippers to opt for air freight despite higher costs. While the peak season may not match the strength of 2024, it remains a critical period for operators, particularly in automotive and e-commerce sectors.

Regional Highlights

Southeast Asia: Vietnam is emerging as a major growth market, benefiting from Chinese foreign direct investment and its role as a manufacturing hub.
Latin America: Despite challenges in the automotive sector, the flower market and interregional cargo flows remain resilient.
China: While transpacific routes may face headwinds, exports to Europe and intra-Asia markets are thriving.

Strategic Recommendations for Supply Chain Professionals

To remain competitive in this evolving market, businesses need to adopt flexible, data-driven strategies. Here are some actionable steps:

Diversify Supply Chains: Explore alternative origins and transit points, including Southeast Asia and Latin America, to mitigate geopolitical risks.
Leverage Agility: Adapt quickly to market shifts by redeploying capacity and expanding networks.
Monitor Policy Changes: Stay informed about trade regulations and tariffs to anticipate potential disruptions.
Collaborate with Reliable Partners: Work with operators who demonstrate flexibility and market expertise.
Invest in Technology: Use advanced analytics to optimize routing and reduce costs.

Key Takeaways

Moderate Growth: The global air cargo market is up 3% in 2025, with steady but uneven demand across regions.
E-commerce Resilience: Despite challenges, global e-commerce demand has grown by 30%, driving air cargo flows.
Geopolitical Impacts: The closure of Russian airspace and Belarus-Poland rail disruptions highlight the importance of adaptable strategies.
Capacity Constraints: Limited freighter availability continues to challenge growth, though it helps stabilize supply-demand dynamics.
Peak Season Outlook: A delayed but moderate peak season is anticipated, with opportunities in automotive, e-commerce, and flowers.
Emerging Markets: Vietnam and Southeast Asia are poised for growth as manufacturers diversify away from China.
Ocean-Air Dynamics: Volatility in ocean freight pricing benefits air cargo, particularly when reliability is critical.

Conclusion

In a year marked by unpredictability, the air cargo industry has showcased its resilience and adaptability. Businesses in manufacturing, retail, logistics, and supply chain management will benefit from staying agile and aligning with trusted partners who can navigate geopolitical and economic complexities. While challenges persist, the opportunities for those prepared to pivot and innovate remain abundant. With the right strategies in place, 2025 can be a year of transformation for the air cargo sector.

Source: "Air Cargo Market Outlook: Analyst Insights & CEO Perspective | Freight Buyers Club #53" - The Freight Buyers' Club, YouTube, Sep 25, 2025 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4egQeswSW0w

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